Will Joe Have Coattails?

Coattails. In politics it means that the candidate(s) at the top of the ballot has a way of “dragging” voters to vote for other members of their party as they go down the ballot. At the top of every ballot in America this Fall will be the race for the presidency and barring something wildly unforeseen for the Democrats the candidate will be Joe Biden.

As I pen this Biden is not universally loved and that is putting it mildly. (I won’t get into whether that is deservedly or not today.) Whether Democrats love him, hate him or are largely indifferent to him it appears, they are stuck with him. It’s a long way out yet, but I am among the many who don’t see anyone knocking Donald Trump off on the way to Milwaukee. So, the matchup appears to be a repeat of 2020. There may or may not be a third party candidate of relative consequence but while they could be a spoiler, they will have no chance of winning. The election will be a binary choice between Biden and Trump.

Just looking at the current favorability numbers you would have to conclude that Biden won’t have coattails; in fact, he might be a drag. I’m far from convinced that will be the case when voters take to the polls in the Fall.

I feel that when they come to voting the vast majority of voters will realize that only Biden and Trump have a chance of winning and that a vote for anyone else may actually help elect their least preferred candidate. Many voters characterize (and have for years) their choices as the, “Lesser of two evils”. (Again, today is not the day for me to expound on that), and they will decide that Biden is that lesser evil.

Right now, Trump’s numbers are looking very good. Let me liken that to the new girl or boy in school scenario. As you gaze at them across the classroom, they look interesting. Upon closer examination and getting to know them your girlfriend or boyfriend looks better and better. I think millions of voters will have a somewhat similar experience as the campaign progresses and they take a serious look at Trump’s proposals. (Remember at this early point few but political junkies are paying much attention to the contest.)

When that happens, they will vote for Biden. We know that voters (and I don’t know why) are notoriously not ticket splitters. If they start voting for a certain party, they will most often continue to do so down ballot. That will be huge this year because the Democrats have several incumbent Senators running for reelection in shall we say less than blue states.

My prediction is that the “tuxedo” will be donned late, but Joe (in a matchup with Trump) will have coattails.

This article was written well ahead of publishing in order to accommodate my year end hiatus and is the property of tellthetruthonthem.com. Its content may not be used without citing the source. It may not be reproduced without the permission of Larry Marciniak.

One thought on “Will Joe Have Coattails?”

  1. Joe needs to start making himself more visible, and repeatedly reminding us of the accomplishments of his presidency. As I have urged before, FDR-like Fireside Chats once a month for now, and once a week after the convention. His age is a concern, and if he is not up to that, then he should step back and anoint Kamala. And let’s get on the stick!

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