Focusing on the signals and not getting distracted by the noise is imperative if you are going to correctly analyze events especially with the Trump administration and the Mueller probe. The first thing to do is remember that at its core this is just another scandal and the way to follow the events is to concentrate on three main things which I will expend on below. Let’s explore.
The first thing to remember is two overwhelming questions: Who knew what? When did they know it? If someone didn’t know they are probably innocent of any wrongdoing including conspiracy. (Neither Trump nor any of his associates will ever be found guilty of collusion because the legal name for that crime is conspiracy.) I expect most of the big names to get caught up in this phase. The crimes were multiple and we already have reason to believe that the guilty will include President Trump, his son Donald, Jr., Mike Flynn, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Carter Page, Jeff Sessions, George Papadopoulos and Jared Kushner to name a few.
Another principle in scandal following is to follow the money. Considering that we are talking about an organized criminal enterprise masquerading as a presidential administration this is especially applicable to Russiagate. This group may be a bit smaller but will almost certainly include the President, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates and Jared Kushner.
The last thing to remember is that the cover-up is worse than the crime. In this case I don’t think that will necessarily be true when viewed from 30,000 feet; but I have little doubt that many individuals who were innocent of the “original sins” will be guilty only because they conspired (there is that word again) to help cover those “original sins” up.
This group will be rather large and will feature some unfamiliar names. It will include people like Hope Hicks who neither personally profited nor actually committed any of the initial crimes. They just conspired in attempts to cover them up. To me the “big fish” here is Vice President Mike Pence. I wonder if Mueller’s team will come after him or ignore him in the interest of a more orderly transition of power.
One last thing to keep in mind is that we are dealing with multiple crimes.
In no way am I saying the investigation is about to wrap up. Quite the contrary; we haven’t even seen any bodies in the Volga or Potomac, yet.
I’ll leave you with a prediction: When all is said and done Steve Bannon, though a material witness who knows and will have testified to where many of the “bodies are buried” will be innocent of having committed any crimes and not be charged.
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