This article was written well ahead of scheduled publishing in order to accommodate my travel plans.
The absolute worst thing that could happen to the Republican Party is that Donald Trump wins the 2024 election. (I am assuming he will be their nominee.) If at first glance does that sounds counterintuitive to you, read on and I’m certain you will change your mind.
The Republican Party has been outside the mainstream of American thought for some time now. The power people realized it and went out seeking groups that would be loyal to them in the process making their issues the party’s issues. (At least on the surface.) It started with the embrace of the Religious Right, or as they called themselves, the Silent Majority. In reality the Silent Majority was and still is a vocal minority. They were easily led (read: gullible) people who became temporarily useful idiots.
When John McCain – who was the most electable candidate the GOP had “on the bench” in 2008 – lost to Barack Obama the thought of a Black man defeating a white man was just unacceptable to the racists (a large group but still a minority) in this country who quickly formed the Tea Party and again, desperate for voters, the Republicans embraced them. With that move racism effectively became a plank in the GOP’s platform.
In 2012 the Republicans ran Mitt Romney, who like McCain, was a good candidate. Again, they lost both the popular and electoral votes. Instead of a course correction to the mainstream of America they, largely due to infighting and lack of leadership, allowed Donald Trump to be their nominee and along with him came the MAGA crowd of the unsuccessful who blamed everyone but themselves for their lack of success. Instead of rejecting them and going back to being the conservative, center-right party of their recent heritage the Republicans, being desperate for voters, embraced them.
Trump is not a true Republican. Trump has no loyalty to the GOP; he simply uses it. He and his core supporters – who he views as temporarily useful idiots – are using the party. The system is “rigged” in that the two major parties enjoy massive structural advantages in the electoral process. I don’t want to get too far into the weeds but, among other things, it is very difficult to get on the ballot as anything other than a Democrat or Republican. Also, the “monitoring positions” are almost exclusively allocated by and between the two entities.
If Trump is returned to the Oval Office his next term will prove that his first was mainly a learning experience. I’m certainly not predicting for the better! I doubt many, if any, of his Cabinet picks will be confirmed by the Senate. Trump will exploit the loopholes in the acting Secretary provisions to extract maximum loyalty from the individuals. Also, he will be able to appoint people who would never be confirmed. People like Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn, Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell, but certainly not limited to them.
If returned to it, I only see Trump leaving the Oval Office one of two ways. The first, would be his death. The second after he hand-picked a successor. The second is much less likely; again, Trump only cares about himself. In the highly likely event that he costs the Republicans control of both chambers of Congress he really doesn’t care.
Some true Trump loyalists are among the elected Republicans but the real danger is that most of the other elected Republicans are cowards who are simply afraid of him and his. So effectively Trump has control over the GOP caucuses.
Much like his 1930s European role models, Trump has formed personal para-military squads. Remember, “Proud Boys, stand back and stand by”? We have seen this act before which is one of the reasons Republicans are anti-public education and so fervent in their quest to ban books. Remember that truth is kryptonite to a liar.
I can see him starting a war, declaring the Insurrection Act and with it martial law or both. Beware those who substitute volume for substance and right wing mythology for the truth. If you care about the Republican party and America’s two-party system the last thing you want to do is vote for Donald Trump. We can only hope that a massive defeat in 2024 will return the Republican party to the “adults” and with it choice to the American electorate.
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