The Obvious And The Absurd

It’s Sunday afternoon as I write this and much of the conjecture is what Trump will say in his State of the Union address. The title sums up my prediction and I think the crystal ball is pretty clear. Let’s explore.

The obvious is all but guaranteed: Trump will lie and tell us all how great he is. Who else would have had the gall to say, “I alone can fix it,” as part of an acceptance speech? I don’t know if that is the height of arrogance or ignorance? In Trump’s case probably both. Trump lies almost as naturally as he breathes so expecting that is like expecting the sun to rise in the morning. It’s almost one of those jokes with the punchline, “Is the Pope Catholic?”

Expect plenty of bragging about the economy. If you have been following the analysis of skilled economists they are actually detecting a slight decline in the velocity of economic growth of late. Not enough to be concerned about, but enough to keep an eye on. Trump will brag about the stock market which is simply continuing a rise that started in Obama’s first term. Even after 401K’s are taken into consideration the bottom 80% of Americans only own 7% of the stocks. The stock market hardly lifts all boats.

It is also not like the so-called Trump effect is magic. All major industrial nations saw their economies grew at a similar rate in 2017. Of course Trump may lay claim to that also. If you are going to live in a dome it may as well be a large one.

Undoubtedly, Trump will mention that black unemployment is at a 17 year low. I remember what many of my black political associates have told me over the years, “We are the last to get hired and the first to get fired.” Unemployment is low (measured by the same standards that Trump the campaigner called fake) but what about wage growth? If Trump’s speech writers are foolish enough to say it is at an all-time low I ask you to think back to slavery.

Much of the speech will be taken up by Trump talking about his favorite subject – himself.

I’m certain he will take several stabs at Congressional Democrats blaming them for obstruction. Remember Trump’s Party controls both chambers and he has failed to nominate candidates for hundreds of still unfilled jobs. You can’t obstruct a non-existent nominee.

If he goes off script he will certainly entertain us with his sophomoric (my apologies to most high school sophomores) nicknames and do a bunch of Hillary comparisons. (Does he realize that we all accept that he won and that she is over as a viable candidate?) Whether geniuses like speechwriter Stephen Miller (Steve Bannon’s old typist) will put lines like those in the written speech is subject for conjecture.

The bottom line is that speech will not be aimed at Wall Street, the assembled members of Congress, or even the American public at large. Forget about an international audience. Trump’s speech, like most of his communication, will be aimed at his base. The bottom line is that this administration is an organized criminal enterprise whose sole purpose is to line its own pockets and in the process the pockets of a few of its largest financiers. No matter how adapt they are at skimming, extorting and purloining they can only garner a finite amount per day and the more days they stay in office the more they can steal. Longevity translates to money. In order to stay in office they need to keep the Congressional Republicans in line. The only way to do that is to have enough sway over a large enough portion of the Republican primary electorate to have individuals fear a primary from a Trump supporter. Especially in the case of the House, often the primary is the election. That is why Trump has so many enablers in Congress.

I’ll be watching and then writing an article for 1am EST publishing.  I hear they put a new Keurig machine in the fact checker’s office at the Washington Post.

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