Some alarming new polling in swing states came out this past weekend. Unlike most Americans I actually have a clue as how to interpret the results of political polls. That coupled with the calendar make it less alarming but still puzzling and concerning.
The polls showed Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in five of the six states polled. In four of them the lead was within or very near the margin of error. That means that the poll was really saying it could not predict an outcome. Swing states are close a year out. Am I’m supposed to be surprised?
The fifth state, Nevada, showed a double-digit lead for Trump. On the surface that is concerning. Nevada is a true swing state where the late Harry Reid had one heck of a powerful political machine centered around the Las Vegas unions. I am among the many who have wondered if with Reid’s passing that machine would stay intact. The truth is we still don’t know the answer to that question.
Historically, political machines heavily rely on late get out the vote (GOTV) efforts that will not show up in a poll run a year out. While I’m far from putting Nevada securely in the Biden column, I am tempering my concern for the moment at least.
A lot of things get credited to or blamed on a sitting president that he has little or no control over. What will happen between here and November of next year is impossible to say. To date, and despite right wing mythology to the contrary, Biden has a very good record.
The economy is in good shape; great when you grade it on a curve compared to other industrialized countries. The UPS strike was averted with a victory for labor. It appears the UAW strike will soon end in another victory for the working class. In general, unemployment is down and wages are up. The FED seems to have tempered its rate raising which benefits working and middle class Americans, (notably not the super-rich). The biggest problem, (aside from the FED), that I see with the economy is that Biden’s communications shop has done an ineffective job of messaging.
The right, again erroneously, continues to attack Biden on inflation. America, while recovering from the pandemic, (I’d say economically recovered), has the lowest inflation rate of any similar country. In some cases by a wide margin.
Internationally the Afghanistan exit was a mess but Biden inherited a bad situation that was the doings of several of his predecessors. The most notable among them were Republicans George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Bush got us into it and Trump “negotiated” a terrible exit agreement that didn’t even include the Afghan government. Yes, you read that correctly!
When Russia attacked Ukraine, Biden was able to stitched together an alliance of democracies that has kept Ukraine afloat for well over 18 months now.
The current conflict in the Middle East is a too early to tell situation but so far Biden – militarily to a large degree acting unilaterally – has been able to keep other players in the region out of it, overtly anyway.
As I pen this, the Trump Crime Family, (Senior, Junior, Eric and Ivanka) are in the midst of testifying in a trial where three of them are defendants and it’s not looking good for them! Donald, Sr., is facing 91 felony charges in various jurisdictions.
I’m a political junkie and if you are reading this there is a good chance that at least to some degree you are too. Most Americans aren’t really paying much attention to the 2024 race yet. Heck, the first primary/caucus vote hasn’t even been cast yet.
Yes, Biden butchers a line in a speech quite often but Trump lives in a fantasyland of his own making which morphs at his convenience. Thankfully it’s early! Beware and be cognizant; plan prudently but do not panic.
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