It’s been a few weeks since my last stab at cleaning up my notes and inbox so I’ll dispense with a long intro paragraph. However, the irony that this is set to be published on Groundhog Day does not escape me.
Tag Archives: recession
Driving On Ice
I learned to drive in my native Western New York which certainly entailed driving on ice. There is no foolproof way to drive on ice. It is much different from and much more difficult than driving in snow. That said there is a technique that will enhance your chances of avoiding a serious mishap. Basically, you pump, not slam, the brakes and certainly never accelerate when you start a skid. To a degree something similar can be said about economic policy. Unfortunately, the powers to be in both America and the UK didn’t seem to learn that lesson.
Too Much For One Day
It is Saturday morning January 5, 2019 as I pen this and return to my version of “live blogging” having taken the last few weeks off. To say a lot happened while I was “away” is a huge understatement. 2019 commenced with an unnecessary government shutdown in progress, the almost certain promise of a presidential impeachment and what I feel are the first signs of a worldwide economic recession triggered by the American economy. I’m certain I will be incomplete but let’s explore. Continue reading Too Much For One Day
The Lowest Bar
By the standard I set for this presidency it has been successful. Before you fly off the handle please reread the preceding sentence carefully. The only standard for success I set for Donald Trump was that he didn’t get us into a nuclear war. My reasoning was that the country (minus some people who have died or will die in the process) would eventually survive any other harm he brought our way. That is an unbelievably low bar and to date this administration has barely managed to clear it. Let’s explore. Continue reading The Lowest Bar
The Certainty Of Uncertainty
In the past I have written of the danger that uncertainty poses in economic markets. Today I want to concentrate on using a phrase who others more skilled than I have in the past: The certainty of uncertainty. By that I meant that uncertainty will undoubtedly lead to a bad outcome. I must credit Rudiger Dornbusch for my inspiration. His law, appropriately called Dornbusch’s Law, states: Crises take longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine. This all very much applies to American today under Donald Trump. Let’s explore. Continue reading The Certainty Of Uncertainty