It’s rather bold of me to make predictions over 11 months out from an election. More than one prime minister has lost a snap election he called because the political climate can change so rapidly. Also, no election turns on a single factor. (Many among us are still debating what happened in America’s 2016 election.) That said I think I have one major factor for 2024 figured out: turnout; and it’s more complicated than normal.
I’m not alone and I know I’ve used Buffalo Springfield’s 1966 hit, For What It’s Worth, on more than one occasion as the jumping off point in an article. The line I (and others) most commonly use is not the one I use today. Today it is, “Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong.” That is not completely accurate and my topic is the Hamas-Israel war and both its larger history and implications.