Strategies

Today’s will be a sort of rambling posting. The common theme is looking ahead – well perhaps not that far ahead -to the 2024 campaign.


With all that is not getting done in Washington (mainly because the House under Republican control is largely dysfunctional) and the “fires” erupting around the globe President Biden could justify a Rose Garden Strategy. For those not familiar with the term it means the incumbent President doesn’t go on the road and basically uses the office to “campaign”.

Biden won’t do that among other reasons because he envisions himself as a retail politician who is at his best when pressing the flesh. While he has admittedly “lost a step” that analysis is not far off. Politically he needs to get out there and do his best to increase voter turnout. Like most close elections – and I have every reason to believe 2024 will be close – it will largely be a turnout election with the party doing the best job of getting the voters leaning their way to the polls winning.

Trump is basically using what I’m calling a “Courtroom Strategy”. He goes to court (to date almost always voluntarily), falsely blames it on Biden, does some sort of press event and/or throws a lie filled social media tantrum. He has two goals in mind: motivate Bubba and spur donations. It’s all a scam. If it weren’t that getting elected might save his skin criminally, he wouldn’t even care about the results as long as he made money in the process.

Trump is getting more extreme every week. He is banking on an appeal to the “bad angels”. If you are a racist, misogynist, xenophobe, low information voter or any combination of those you are his target. For some time, a major part of the GOP strategy has been to suppress voter turnout hoping only their people make it to the polls in enough cases and possibly (we’ll see) some voter nullification if they end up on the losing end of a close margin.

While Biden is appealing to a collection of interest groups like a big tent national candidate should, Trump is banking on his minority base to show up strong and basically catch the other side napping or lethargic.

The Democrats have a plethora of winning issues to use in the 2024 campaign. I’ll hit on a few today. The common theme is that they are quick hitters. Remember that other than political junkies and close followers, most Americans have about a 30 second attention span when it comes to listening to a political argument.

In Biden’s case it is obvious he has to attack Trump’s record. I could go on for days on this topic but time and space won’t accommodate that. All that has to be done is the truth has to be told. One glaring example is when Trump and his advocates talk about how great the economy was under him, they conveniently neglect numbers including the year 2020.

Closely related, if you are running against a sitting Republican link them to Trump. Make them own his record. Trump is not popular and never has been. He lost both the 2016 and 2020 popular vote by seven figures. There is a very good possibility that he will lose the 2024 popular vote by eight figures.

Point out the threat to democracy that Trump sycophant Republicans are. Make your Republican opponent (incumbent or not) declare that they are not voting for nor supporting Trump. They can’t do that and keep their base in line. You have painted them into a corner.

The other issue is choice. Trump has been running around taking credit for the Dobbs decision. From a Democratic electoral standpoint that is great. You don’t have to pin it on him and the Republicans; he has admitted to it. The simple fact is that the majority of Americans are outraged by the decision and the GOP attempts (some successful) to outlaw abortion often without exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother. This goes well beyond just being a women’s issue – although just flipping the sub-demographic of white women would seal a victory if all other factors remain constant.

This is far from a comprehensive 2024 strategy exploration but it hits a few universal and very strong points. It also gives you something to think about.

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