Primary Money

Earlier this week the September fundraising numbers came out. I will admit I didn’t get very deep into them because their conclusion was so obvious. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are leading their parties by wide margins. Why wouldn’t they?

Joe Biden has no credible threat on the Democratic side. Not that he ever was a credible threat but Robert F. Kennedy switched his unreasonable facsimile of a campaign to independent. If his surname weren’t Kennedy – about as close to Democratic royalty as you can come – he wouldn’t have ever gotten any press. Unless Biden somehow drops out there will not be a credible challenger in the Democratic primary (if you can even call it that). Should he withdraw, it will be a circus; I don’t see the other hopefuls clearing the way for Vice President Kamala Harris and there is a very good possibility she couldn’t win a primary.

Biden’s numbers are not record setting but why would they be? It’s not like in the minds of most donors that he needs the money before the general.

Now to the Republican side. Donald Trump is running away with the primary. His lead seems to increase in direct proportion to his indictments. It’s not your father’s politics in the GOP! I remember when many Republicans considered Nelson Rockefeller unelectable because he was divorced. Trump is on wife number three after divorce number two – at least one of which was messy – and that’s the least of his baggage.

If you can really say that he ever had a serious challenger it was Florida Governor Ron “Kinky Boots” DeSantis. DeSantis’ fundraising numbers are falling at only a slightly slower rate than his polling numbers. Many, even on the GOP side, consider him to be a politically dead man walking.

Trump’s Vice President, Mike Pence’s campaign is said to be over $600,000 in the hole with no prospects at a surge in either the polls or fundraising. When a significant portion of the Republican primary electorate considers you a traitor and has no problem with the “Hang Mike Pence” chants on January 6th what path do you see to the presidential nod?

I know it’s a long way out to next summer’s conventions but the only people the big money people see that can beat Joe Biden and Donald Trump are themselves. Therefore, the smart primary money is disproportionately going to them.

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