Predicting ’24

Nothing like starting the new year on a fool’s errand – predicting the future in American politics. The first four are what I think will be the biggest American political stories of 2024 and the fifth will come as a shock to many (although it won’t even cause a ripple in American politics for the vast majority.)

Number 1 – The 2024 election and all that surrounds it. That was an easy call!

Number 2 – The Trump trials. The delay tactics, the testimony and the court rulings will continue seemingly non-stop. Anyone who thinks they have this figured out is deceiving themself, (I’m keeping my PG rating in mind with my choice of verbiage!).

Number 3 – Voter suppression, intimidation and nullification. We will see attempts at dirty tricks like we haven’t seen since the end of the Civil War. Some will be both more successful and more impactful than others. This will continue past Election Day, in fact some of the already successful tactics are aimed at creating the illusion of a rigged election by delaying the counting of early ballots.

Note: It will be difficult to separate the first three and that is because they are all, to a significant degree, interrelated.

Number 4 – This is the one I am the least certain of. Mass shootings. I don’t think they will cease. (Boy, do I hope that I am wrong on that point!) I fear that they are becoming so commonplace in America that we just accept them like snow in January in Buffalo.

Number 5 – An announcement. My current plans are to make my 12/12/24 article my final one on this site. The reasons are multiple. I feel that much is expected from those to which much has been given (somebody said that much more elegantly long ago). Among the advantages I have been given is an ability to have a keen insight into political and policy affairs. I feel I have an obligation to pass that understanding along. I’ve been writing this column for about 15 years now and I feel that debt is paid.

Long ago I promised myself that when this became a job I’d quit. I am about at that point. I’m well into my 70s and it is time to get to the next phase of retirement. I would like to write another book(s) and perhaps finally publish one. Will that happen? I honestly don’t know but it never will while I continue to do this.

I truly feel that Trump must not be allowed to occupy the Oval Office again and that I have a moral and patriotic obligation to stick around through the election to help make that happen. I normally take the end of December off from writing articles having penned them in advance. This one is an example of that. (Unlike the Republicans in Congress I believe in getting my job done regardless of taking time off. My time off is my problem.) In 2024 I plan on dispensing with that since the election will be over and hopefully settled (for the sane people anyway).

Finally, I have to take Trump’s rantings seriously. He has promised to go after his critics. He talks of declaring Trump Derangement Syndrome a mental disease and putting people like me in mental institutions. I don’t know all that the road ahead holds for me but I certainly don’t plan on spending it in a mental institution for exercising my First Amendment rights and telling the truth.

Sorry to have so much in depressing news today, but cheer up because we collectively can turn lemons into lemonade. Vote!!!!!!

This article was written well ahead of publishing in order to accommodate my year end hiatus and is the property of Its content may not be used without citing the source. It may not be reproduced without the permission of Larry Marciniak.

One thought on “Predicting ’24”

  1. #6: There will be a massive incident of some kind at, or related to, the US/Mexican border, perhaps as an October surprise, and it will found to have been instigated by Republicans, perhaps even Trump himself.

    Happy New Year, Larry. I’ll relish this final year of your columns.

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