Normally op-ed writers take victory laps. This is closer to a mea culpa. However, I’m convinced there is at least one more act to this play. Yesterday’s article (boy, should I have put a time stamp on that one!) assumed the Wagner Group’s actions would last at least a bit longer. Well, on the surface at least, it didn’t work out that way.
If reports are to be believed a Putin-Prigozhin “truce” was brokered by Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko. That’s akin to making a deal with Donald Trump and having Boris Epshteyn as the broker. Many believe that Putin’s ultimate goal is to reconstitute the USSR and today Lukashenko’s Belarus is the closest there is to a Russian satellite country.
Prigozhin constitutes a threat to Putin’s authoritarian rule. It is just too convenient that he and his 25,000 troops are supposed to end up in Belarus as a result of this deal. Word of advice Mr. Prigozhin: I wouldn’t accept any meetings or accommodations on the upper floors of buildings. Putin has a track record of eliminating, not exiling, threats and Prigozhin is one. Not as strong as he thought or hoped to be but a threat nonetheless.
The loyalty of the Wagner Group’s troops to Prigozhin is questionable at best. Putin wants and I’d say needs those troops. But he wants them sans Prigozhin. The real details of the deal may not be known for some time but I’m willing to bet they would make for a key portion of a spy movie.
This is far from over and I now have even more questions than I did 24 hours ago.
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