I touched on this earlier in the week and today I’d like to explore it a bit more. While possible but not probable I think Donald Trump may drop out of the 2024 presidential race even before the Republican nominating convention. Wilder yet I can see a situation where he drops out after that but prior to the general election.

To understand Trump, you have to understand that his political run has been about only two things: money and ego. And certainly in that order. Trump, his businesses and his political career have all been little more than an organized criminal enterprise/scam. In plain language it’s all about the money.

I’ll take off my partisan hat for a paragraph. The biggest problem in contemporary American political is the influence of money. If you are anything like me, just look at your email inbox any time anything happens in politics. You get deluged with fundraising pleas. There is a good reason for that – they work. When people feel either threatened or angry – and every political issue can be spun both of those ways – they are likely to donate. Professional fundraisers and political players make tons of money off those pleas with very little work.

Unless you believe that everything is some big anti-Trump hoax, (in which case I can’t help you because I deal in reality), the evidence that Trump has been involved in many fundraising scams is voluminous. Even his 2016 campaign was to a significant degree a scam. The campaign billed various Trump owned entities like his hotels and aircraft operation.

Much of what Trump raises is going to his legal defenses (yes, it certainly is plural and only growing). An individual may think they are donating to help him get reelected but in reality, they are helping pay his legal costs including for transgressions that are entirely non-political and predate his presidency.

Donations have also been used to pay the legal bills of people Trump needs to keep loyal. I could write volumes about that but I trust my readers to connect those dots.

So much for, albeit incomplete, background. Let’s get to the implications for the future.

Trump loves money more than ego. Money feeds his ego and the inflated image of himself that many believe. He is a wealthy man; heck he was basically born wealthy. However, he is nowhere near as wealthy as most think and he requires a constant stream of revenue to keep up the façade. That situation is only exacerbated by his (very expensive) legal woes!

As long as he is making money by running, he will continue to run. He cares nothing about issues, America or the Republican party for that matter. Trump cares about Trump; end of story. The one non-monetary factor he will consider is that if he feels running shields him legally, he may continue even if he is not making money in the process. Again, Trump only cares about himself.

Analytically I see a Biden-Trump rematch; at this point anyway. The last time we had a rematch in the presidential contest was in 1956. I was too young to really be following politics then but I have to assume Eisenhower was such a prohibitive favorite that who the Democrats tapped really didn’t matter that year. (1956 results were: popular vote Ike 57.4% to 42%; electoral vote 457 to 73 – and that was aided by pretty much a solid Democratic South which it was at that time.) Therefore normally a rematch would be difficult to envision. With the winner take all GOP primary and the cult-like following Trump has been able to assembly along with the financial and legal situation I outlined above it is a real probability.

One thing is certain: it’s going to be interesting. Stay tuned, fasten your seatbelts and follow the money!

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