It is Monday afternoon as I write this and a story that began this weekend is still evolving. I’d normally let a story like this settle before opining on it but this one is potentially too huge to ignore even for a bit. Let’s explore.

Over the weekend oil producing facilities in Saudi Arabia experienced a very serious drone attack. The attack appears to have reduced the global oil supply by perhaps 5%. Oil prices spiked just short of 20% in the ensuing hours. America almost immediately blamed Iran for the attack despite the fact that the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed credit. (That may be a bit of an academic argument since Iran is known to be a major backer of the Houthi rebels.) Terrorist groups have a history of claiming credit for attacks they have had no, or at best peripheral, involvement in. To date the best “evidence” the United States has been able to offer is a video that supposedly proves that the attack originated from either Iran or Iraq. That hardly is proof beyond a reasonable doubt and justification for a military attack on a sovereign country.

Despite all that President Trump said the United States was, “Locked and loaded.” That is gun lingo for ready to shoot. (Bubba loves gun lingo! It makes them think they are tough. Bubba, like Trump, probably couldn’t hurt a fly and certainly couldn’t outsmart one.) I’m glad that John Bolton is out of the picture. He has wanted to go to war with Iran for decades and anything that even bordered on a reason would be fine with him. Part of the problem is that the National Security Advisor post is vacant and there is significant doubt that Trump would listen to sound advice anyway. The Saudi royal family is a major financier of the extended Trump clan and Trump views the American military as one of his toys. Trump has been known for talking tough and then not following through. I hope this is another case of the bully making a lot of meaningless noise.

Trump is in an ever deepening political hole and one way out is a war. Americans generally rally around their president in times of war. An argument for reelecting a wartime president is “don’t change horses in the middle of the stream”. A war with Iran would get a lot of the scandals out of the headlines.

If America went to war in defense of the Saudis it would further endear Trump and his family to the Saudi royal family. Bubba (a significant part of Trump’s base) loves war; it fits in with their macho self-image. Bubba also likes a non-white enemy; that plays to their racist and xenophobic prejudices. A war over oil is certain to raise the price of oil which makes the oil industry – a Trump financier – more profitable. This is especially a relief to the fracking interests since fracking need high oil prices to be economically feasible.

The reason this war would be especially attractive to Trump is that it will be his excuse when the Trump Recession hits. Instead of admitting that it is a result of all his bad economic decisions he will blame it on the global price of oil. How convenient.

I am far from an Iran fan and, while despite the lack of concrete evidence, there is reason to believe that Iran is at least complicit in this act. My question is: Why would the United States commit its military personnel to a war over it? Saudi Arabia is a wealthy country with significant military capabilities. Why not let it fight its own battles? If Saudi Arabia goes to war with Iran I’m not too concerned. Unlike the Trump family, I don’t consider a regime that killed Jamal Khashoggi and then lied about it to be a friend. My concern, which it doesn’t appear Trump has taken into consideration, is what do the other military powers in the region do. Of particular concern is Turkey. That is further complicated by the fact that Turkey is a NATO member.

This situation basically reminds me of an old Vietnam era line: “War is good business; invest your son.” That is what Trump is really telling Bubba. Fortunately for Trump there is little chance Bubba will realize that prior to November of 2020.

I hope history is repeating itself and this is all Trump bluster! If not we are in for some bad times and it just might get Trump reelected.

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