It’s Nerdy Time – Fourth Edition

We can have a legitimate dialog about what the biggest political story of last week was but I’m going out on the sturdiest limb in eternity in predicting the election will be the biggest story of this week. I’m ready to make my final Electoral College predictions of the cycle and they will all but reveal the winner’s identity. Let’s explore.

Going into this weekend I’m giving Hillary Clinton 261 electoral votes and Donald Trump 180. That leaves Hillary 9 votes short, Trump 90 votes short and leaves 97 up for grabs. Here is how I arrived at my numbers.

I gave Clinton the District of Columbia and the 18 states (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin) which have gone Democratic in the last six consecutive presidential elections. Back in September I added Virginia to her total. I felt that Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine would carry his home state for the ticket and see no reason to change that prediction. Based on early voting I have now added Nevada.

I gave Trump the following 22 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. I’m being generous in giving Trump Utah’s six electoral votes. Clinton won’t win the Beehive State but third Party candidate Evan McMullin might. Trump desperately needs those six electoral votes. If anyone in the Clinton camp is counting on them they need to be drug tested.

That leaves 8 states: Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15) and Ohio (18) for a total of 97 electoral votes “on the table”. Trump would have to take over 92% of what is “on the table” in order to win. Trump can only afford to lose just one of three states (Iowa, New Hampshire, or New Mexico) and still have a chance to win.

Unless Trump gets incredibly lucky, there are one or more huge surprises, or we are waiting for a state to be decided I expect that when the polls close on the west coast at 11pm Hillary Clinton will be declared the winner and the 45th President Elect of the United States of America.

NOTE: I have not factored the split Congressional district apportionment of electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska into my calculations. That could happen but I don’t expect the Electoral College count to be close enough for it to matter. While I can’t guarantee it, I expect Clinton to amass over 300 electoral votes.

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