I felt like writing a positive article today. The best I can come up with is a story of improvement, hopefully it is the beginning of a trend. I speak of the pandemic situation in America.
My regular readers know I follow the 14 day rolling average of new infections. As of this writing the most current data available is for February 15th. With the exception of one date the number of new cases has been below 100,000 for about ten days. Over the month of February the percentage decrease has basically been in the 30s. The February 15th numbers are 55,552 new cases and a decrease of 41%. Compared with recent history that is fantastic!
All that reason for optimism doesn’t mean we are out of the woods. We have yet to see if a Super Bowl spike will materialize and if so, how large it will be. I expect one but nowhere near as large as the Christmas/New Year spike.
The uncontrollable factor is what if any considerable challenge(s) mutations will cause. Despite alarm, to date we have been pretty fortunate with them.
This article will be published on Ash Wednesday which means Easter will be fast upon us. I am concerned about an Easter/Spring Break spike. It will occur and it will be larger than the Super Bowl spike.
Why did we have the drop? The short answer is probably due to a variety of reasons. Ill tackle some of the “political ones”.
The development of the vaccine is one. Keying on the word “development” at least some credit (if only right place at the right time) has to be given to Donald Trump. A vaccine is useless until it gets in the arms of enough people. The procurement and distribution under Trump were (being kind) inadequate.
We have seen inoculations double from Trump’s high point in the few days Joe Biden has been in the Oval Office. His administration has also locked in delivery by July of sufficient doses to vaccinate about 300 million Americans. Remember we have a population of less than 330 million and as of this point no vaccine has been approved for children.
There is one more factor that concerns me; particularly because we are dealing with Americans. We love our freedom in this country and have a basic can do and nobody is going to tell me not to attitude. Much of that is commendable and has contributed to making us the great country we are. In this case it poses a danger – that we ease up too quickly. Even after vaccination and until we have reached community immunity, we need to continue the practices under our individual control namely wearing masks, social distancing and frequent hand washing.
55,000 daily new infections is great news compared to where we have been but it is hardly the all clear alert.
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