It was just a bit before 9 pm Monday night when the alert came across my phone’s screen. It’s Saturday afternoon and I’m still as angry. I knew I had the week’s biggest political story and nothing has changed in the interceding days.
The news alert was that Politico had just published the first draft, authored by Samuel Alito, of a Supreme Court decision in Dobbs that overturned both Roe and Casey. There is a lot to unpack here and I’ll start with the lesser issue of the leak itself. With the exception of Ted Cruz everybody seems to agree that we do not know who the leaker is. First off, that leads me to believe that Cruz, as usual, is full of raw sewage.
On the speculation about the leaker, I have to refer back to an earlier Wall Street Journal editorial that outlined a scenario eerily similar to reality. My guess is that Politico was the second media outlet to receive the leak – presumably from the same source – and that the Journal decided to publish the information as an editorial not news. While the Journal’s hard news is world class its editorials are another matter! You connect those dots as you please. I’m waiting for hard evidence which may not surface for some time.
When the Republicans found that outright racism wasn’t the golden ticket some decades ago, they turned to the issue of abortion. That worked out well in fundraising (and never forget the money angle) along with bringing in new voters and volunteers. Over the years they worked at packing the Court. With the brains of Mitch McConnell joined and the useful idiot Donald Trump they succeeded in packing the Court with enough anti-choice votes. Note: All three Trump nominees lied about their positions on Roe (and in at least one case Casey) during their conformation hearings. What did you expect? They were Trump nominees. Perhaps it was some sort of alternative truth.
As to legal and safe abortion it will be illegal in about half of the states in extremely short order. I’ve seen a lot of work done on projecting just where but there are too many variables involved to make a totally accurate prediction. With a few exceptions it will be legal in the northeast and on the west coast and illegal most everywhere else. Poorer women will suffer the most. Women from more wealth will simply travel. Abortion tourism will become a new economy. Mexico set up for it a few months back. Do you think that was an accident?
I expect that when it is all said and done the final Court ruling will be substantially the same as the leaked document. I expect a 5-4 ruling. Roe (1973) was 7-2 and Casey (1992) which, in part, reaffirmed it was 5-4. (That ties into the probability of a right wing leak; they though they had it 5-4 the other way.) If you think this is the end of it you are not paying attention, naïve or most likely both. Do you think all the fundraisers are suddenly going to quietly retire?
In part Alito justifies his ruling by saying that abortion isn’t in the original text of the Constitution. Really Sammy? Are you that desperate and stupid? Neither is the word “corporation” and you and yours have repeatedly ruled in favor of corporations and corporate rights. I could come up with a plethora of other examples but I have more I want to cover today.
Contraception is the natural next target. Watch for Griswold (7-2, 1965) to be challenged and overturned if this Court remains intact and unamend. These will be followed closely by challenges to Obergefell (5-4, 2015) and Loving (9-0, 1967). Homosexuals and non-whites are favorite right wing targets. If it weren’t for fear and prejudice, they could hardly win an election above the local level.
Thinking of politics through the lens of baseball the boys and girls in the “minor leagues” are chomping at the bit for the opportunity to make a name for themselves and get “called up to the Show”.
Louisiana may be the leader to this point. The Republicans there are advancing a bill that would make a woman who has an abortion guilty of murder. Many states are enacting bills that would make a resident of their state who obtains an abortion in another state guilty under their state’s laws. Effectively what they have done is make a pregnant woman state property. I see little difference between these laws and fugitive slave laws. Again, I have more examples but insufficient space.
Perhaps the most galling is that many state laws make no exception for rape or incest and in rare cases the life of the mother. In other words, a woman has to die trying to give birth or face prison. The majority of rapists never are caught let alone convicted. All women who are impregnated by a rapist are with child. Motherhood is basically a lifetime job so the victim of the rapist is punished with a “life sentence” while often the rapist goes free. In the case where the rapist is identified I am willing to bet Republicans will pass laws giving them parental rights.
Many of the state laws remind me of the former East Germany. The Stasi (their secret police) were extremely effective because they got so many people to basically spy on their neighbors. It got to the point that nobody trusted anybody else with good cause. Many of these laws provide bounties to effectively turn anyone who will stoop that low into a vigilante.
State legislative races are more important than ever. Keep that in mind when you go to the polls. And by all means, don’t sit out the supposed minor elections. There are no such things!
I’m sick of hearing the pro-life label! These people are pro-fetus (they don’t want to do much of anything for the child once it is born) and anti-choice; plain and simple! Republicans consistently short change child care, public education and health care. A true pro-life person would not do that.
I try to avoid writing when angry but this is a case where my anger is not about to subside anytime soon. In fact even after leaving a lot on the cutting room floor tomorrow’s article will be an “extension” that covers another aspect of this.
I am well aware that today is Mothers’ Day. Motherhood should be a choice not something imposed by a Court whose legitimacy is questionable at best.
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