One of the biggest challenges Democrats traditionally face in the mid terms is turnout. Most people expect that to be the case in 2022 because Donald Trump is not on the ballot. Well, I will dispute that below, after I offer one of my pet political theories.
My number one rule of modern American politics is that most people do not vote for a candidate; they vote against one. If you want to motivate modern day Americans, get them angry. My favorite example is the local civic meeting. Most school board or county commission meetings are poorly attended except when the populous is angry. I’ve been to many such meetings and almost without exception the vast majority of people in the room are either press (and too few of them) or on the payroll of the entity.
One of the excuses that many offer for not voting is along the lines of “Why bother? All politicians are alike anyway”. If you really feel that way you simply haven’t been paying attention! A glaring 2022 example is the projected general election for governor in Georgia. Can you really say that there is no difference between presumed Democratic candidate Stacey Abrahams and the Republicans who will be either Brian Kemp or David Perdue?
The most polarizing candidate of the 21st century thus far is Donald Trump. I have no doubt that many made it to the polls (we had record turnout in a pandemic) in 2020 just to vote against Trump. My contention is that although his name might not be in print Trump is absolutely on the 2022 ballot regardless of where in America you live.
It is this simple. Every seat in the House is up. Trump has been and will be endorsing candidates like crazy. If the Republicans should take back the lower chamber, he will claim credit and most if not all of the DC Republicans will continue to bow down to him. If it is a close loss, (and it certainly won’t be a big one), he will say the lost elections were rigged. Where have we heard that before?
The reality is that the Republicans will be in a position to take back the House based on gerrymandering alone. The framework for that is Red Map which predates Trump. Remember in the Trump dominated GOP truth and facts don’t matter. Regardless of the outcome the final seat count will be close. For the purpose of today’s column, I won’t even factor in voter suppression and/or possible voter nullification.
Now my free advice to the Democrats: “sell” this election as a referendum on Trump and a prophylactic to prevent a future Trump candidacy. If non-super voters with a Democratic predisposition perceive the 2022 election as one with Trump on the ballot they will show up. Sweeping or nearly sweeping the few competitive House seats is the Democrats’ only chance to retain the House and the anti-Trump vote is the key to turnout. If Democrats are calm, they will lose the House. Angry, they have a shot.
This article was written well ahead of publishing in order to accommodate my year end hiatus and is the property of tellthetruthonthem.com. Its content may not be used without citing the source. It may not be reproduced without the permission of Larry Marciniak.