Blue Backlash

In Tuesday’s article I coined the term “Blue Backlash”. I hope Democratic operatives and candidates take it seriously and use it where applicable. Its potential exists in all but a few very gerrymandered red districts. Today I want to explain it in a bit more detail.
By a Blue Backlash I mean the voters who would normally swing between parties (there really aren’t that many of them) and the softer Republican voters who actually care about issues. The GOP has largely been taken over by its extreme right and those true conservative Republicans who are left in positions of power are almost to a person afraid to challenge them. Therefore, the party is enacting extreme laws and its judges are making rulings far outside the mainstream.

Probably the key issue is a woman’s right to make her own reproductive and physical/medical decisions. There are others, (for example the assault on the LGBTQ+ community), but that one is the easiest to illustrate and seems to provoke the most passion.

Earlier this year in deep red Kansas an anti-abortion issue failed miserably. Recently in Ohio, which is purple leaning red, and a key 2024 battleground state a thinly veiled anti-choice issue met the same fate. Neither of these happened by mobilizing Democratic voters alone. Not even close!

In the process people made new friends and new data was gathered by Democratic leaning forces for the first time. That data must be effectively used in 2024. If we have a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024, as looks likely at this still early point, Trump would have to flip at least two, and more realistically three, states while holding all his 2020 winnings. Can you say that looks likely? Now add a possible Blue Backlash and it looks even more remote. However, Biden flipping say Ohio looks a lot more plausible.

The 2024 Senate map looks grim for the Democrats. Many of the seats they have to defend will be a battle and cost a lot of money. Ohio is one of the keys but with the recent events in the Buckeye state Sherrod Brown has to be sleeping a lot easier. If a Blue Backlash appears to be materializing in Ohio (or several other states) it will free up some Democratic money to put into the one or two, all be they, remote flip possibilities. 2022’s Senate races were an illustration of the Democrats spending almost all their money on defending incumbents and in the process possibly losing a pickup opportunity or two.

If you are a Democrat running statewide or in other than a solid Republican district stress the issues like abortion that will motivate voters. Remember Democrat win the women’s vote and the only sub-demographic they lose is white women and that is only by a narrow margin. Flipping just a few votes can change the outcome and with it many races. Not to say what impact a few motivated (read: angry) women can have on a close race.

Democratic candidates please remember my slogan for 2024: Remember Baby Milo!

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