Bet The Under

The AFC and NFC conference championship games are completed which sets the teams for the Super Bowl. Many Americans who are not really gamblers will be wagering on the game via pools and the like (as they will on the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament). I am far from an expert on betting. I never really was a gambler but when I became a college coach I wanted to remain above suspicion and would not go as far as playing a football card or buying a square in a pool. I’d like to juxtapose that with President Trump’s history of telling less than the truth (a/k/a lying). Let’s explore.

Monday morning the Washington Post ran an article documenting that as of his first two years in office Trump has told 8,158 what they labeled “False or misleading claims” or what most of us call lies. In his first year he averaged 5.9 lies per day. In his second year that accelerated to 16.5 lies per day.  One method of gambling is the over/under. The bookies establish a number and the gambler bets if the result will be over or under that number.

The question (and fodder for gamblers) is when Trump will hit the “magic” 10,000 lies number. If you take his second year rate of lies and simply extrapolate it that date is May 12th (which interestingly is Mothers’ Day). If the line becomes May 12th my strong advice is to bet the under. In other words, bet that Trump will tell his 10,000th lie since assuming office before May 12th.

As the pressure on Trump increases from the number of new revelations in the many scandals that surround him the the frequency of his lies increase. Keep in mind that Trump knows all his transgressions. Many of them will go undiscovered no matter how complete the various investigations will be. So Trump is under even greater internal than external pressure. We may never know all that he did, but he does.

I’m not a gambler, but if you are here is my considered advice: bet that Trump will hit 10,000 lies before Mothers’ Day.

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