Bet On Jack

I chose today for this article because I felt there was a good chance that the legal maneuverings in Miami might start in earnest today. Americans like to view political and legal events in terms of sports metaphors. As such, this is a matchup between Donald Trump and Jack Smith. There is very good reason to believe that it is a series as opposed to a one-and-done.

In any jury trial the outcome is always in doubt until the conclusion. (As Yogi would have said, “It’s not over ‘till it’s over.”) Further complicating this version of American justice is the presiding judge in Miami, Aileen Cannon, who is both underqualified and has a history of being a Trump ally. Based on what we know to date, I’d have to favor Smith but a loss in Miami wouldn’t totally surprise me.

Going to baseball, (my favorite sport), this is better viewed as a short series. I feel there is a very good chance that “games 2 & 3” will take place in DC and New Jersey and not necessarily in that order.

Therefore, Trump has to go three-for-three while Smith only has to go one-for-three. Huge advantage to Smith! Add to that Trump’s losing record in courts -and he is very litigious so it’s not a small sample size – and you have to like Smith’s chances.

Here is a complicating factor that favors Trump. One of my concerns is that legitimate evidence will not be admitted because of its sensitive security nature. (I’m ignoring the very real possibility that Cannon may make some Trump favorable rulings as to evidence in this portion of my argument.)

As to the impact of Cannon’s rulings; I am a follower of Sun Tzu. Among his many pearls of wisdom is that most battles are won before they are fought. If Cannon rules too much prime evidence as inadmissible the Miami trial could be largely fact free which hugely benefits Trump.

Thinking of this as a playoff, Trump will still have to prevail in at least two state courts (New York and Georgia). (State convictions are not subject to presidential pardons.) Don’t be surprised if other states are added as time goes on or somehow (I’m not an attorney) are rolled into a federal case.

If you are a betting person here is the bottom line: bet on Jack.

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