Well, if you are reading this congratulations, you made it to 2023. I’d like to start the year out on a dangerous venture: predicting the five biggest American political stories of the year.
This will get the most ink and air time, although it may well be the most interesting it will not be the most consequential story of the year and that is who is running for the presidency in 2024.
The biggest question will be answered in 2023, (if it hasn’t already been by publishing,) and that is if Joe Biden is going to take another shot at it. If he does, I expect a limited, but perhaps, consequential challenge on the Democratic side. If he choses to hang it up there will be a large field without a clear favorite.
On the Republican side I see Donald Trump’s star fading with the establishment (is there an establishment Republican Party anymore?) and perhaps more importantly with the deep pocketed donor class. Much of the base still backs him and that will make him a factor. I still expect a large field; many Republicans smell blood in the water.
The antics of the Republican House will also get tons of coverage, especially by the right wing media! I expect House hearings on all sorts of things. Dr. Jill Biden’s underwear drawer may not be safe. It will make Benghazi look like a serious investigation. The caucus in general will be Romper Room. The GOP will have to distract from what I am certain will be a dismal performance. Other than tax cuts for the wealthy what policy do they agree on? What do they stand for? It will be the Party of No 2.0.
The war in Ukraine. Republicans are all ready threatening to cut off American funding. Joe Biden and American dollars are the lynchpin of the western coalition supporting the Ukrainians. If the Republicans are successful in cutting off funds that will mean the Ukrainians will be conquered by the Russians and democracy will suffer a huge blow. Does anyone think that if Putin is successful in Ukraine he will stop there? I certainly don’t! Those who fail to study history…
Trump related scandals and legal issues will dominate the news. What we already know is scary; think about what we don’t yet know.
Few Americans even know that this case is pending but the Supreme Court’s decision – I expect it to be the last one announced before they leave town for the summer – in Moore v Harper has the potential to end American democracy as we have known it since the inception of the nation. Basically, it would make state legislatures supreme. They would literally be empowered to disregard the vote of the people in the presidential election and award their state’s electors to who they chose.
I don’t know what percentage of American can even name their state representatives (in all but one state, Nebraska, you have two) but I’m willing to bet anything it is well less than 50%.
Well, that’s enough for today. Go enjoy the rest of it and its back to work or school for many of you tomorrow.
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