408-0, Thus Far

Don’t think 12. Don’t think 34. Think 408.

If at first the above appears to be a bit of a riddle I’ll explain. The biggest American political story of the week just passed is the verdict in the Trump hush money case. 12 jurors considered and voted on 34 felony charges. Since a unanimous vote beyond a reasonable doubt is required for a guilty verdict in a New York State criminal trial and Donald Trump was found guilty as charged of all 34 felonies that means he lost 408-0.

Remember that the jury included a person whose primary information source (I can’t call it news) was Truth Social and another who cited Fox News. This was far from rigged. Trump had the advantage. While the prosecution needed to go 12-0 to secure a guiltily verdict on any charge Trump just needed one to hang the jury.

Trump complained that the venue prohibited a fair trial since in his words that district had only recorded a 5% vote for him. In reality the district voted 15% for him. With two jurors out of 12 avid consumers of his propaganda he was actually given almost 17% of the jury. Mathematically that is as fair as possible if you consider consumption of right wing mythology as the determinative factor. He went 0 for 2, 34 times with “his people”, or 68-0.

Trump is now a convicted felon. Period. No appeal, pardon or pending appeal changes that fact or ever will. As of this writing he is a convicted felon out on bail on his own reconnaissance.

Rendered verdict notwithstanding, this chapter is far from over. (In fact, tomorrow’s posting will basically be a Part II.) The first thing I’d like to say is that we should rejoice in that the system held. I think that many were very brave especially the jurors!

The verdict has forced many Republican office holders and candidates to take a stand. Most, have come to his defense parroting the lies of a rigged system etc. The reality is that Trump enjoyed and is still enjoying an experience much more skewed to the defendant than almost all who face our judicial system. Almost all other Manhattan convicted felons awaiting sentencing are either at Rikers or have posted cash bail (another issue for another day).

Especially for those on this fall’s ballot I have to wonder what price may be paid for supporting Trump. Will he cost the Republicans the Senate? Will he ensure the House being flipped? When will this party finally come to the realization that Trump is a loser?

We are still not rid of Trump. I’m anxious to see some good battleground state post-verdict polling. I don’t expect the needle to move a lot, but in a close election (and I anticipate one) it doesn’t have to in order to make a difference. Most voters who have decided are locked into their positions. The swing vote, albeit important, is actually rather small. Predicting the effect this will have on voter turnout is even more difficult.

That said I can’t see how this helps Trump except financially and remember that this has always been a con from 2015 and the escalator ride on. His base may well rally behind him but he had their votes already; he’ll just get a bit more of their cash.

I could be wrong but I don’t expect a lot of domestic terrorist activity on his behalf. Too many of his 1/6 “troops” are already in prison or facing charges. The hard core is largely “off the field” and sans the leaders the lambs are less likely to follow.

From the feminist standpoint I was glad to see that apparently the jury took Stormy Daniels at least somewhat seriously and that the “nuts and sluts defense” failed this time around.

So, when you think of this, think 408-0 and that Mr. Trump, and the rest of your arithmetically challenged crew, is a true landslide.

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