Turnout ’24

It’s rather bold of me to make predictions over 11 months out from an election. More than one prime minister has lost a snap election he called because the political climate can change so rapidly. Also, no election turns on a single factor. (Many among us are still debating what happened in America’s 2016 election.) That said I think I have one major factor for 2024 figured out: turnout; and it’s more complicated than normal.

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