Another new year is upon us and in American politics it doesn’t appear it will be a quiet, boring one! I’ll try and predict what the top five stories of 2020 will be. Let’s explore.
This one may be somewhat like shooting fish in a barrel but I’ll say the number one story will be the November elections. The big race as far as money and attention goes will be the presidency with a Democrat to be named sometime in 2020 versus sadly, I think Donald Trump, (more about that later.) Of critical importance are the Senate races in which the Democrats have a great chance of taking over the upper chamber. I am working on the assumption that the House will stay in Democratic control.
The story everyone is ignoring but I am terrified of is the aftermath of the presidential election. Should Trump win he will feel completely unchecked. Congress will have proven itself incapable and in many cases unwilling to constrain him and he will no longer have to face the electorate. Should Trump lose he is a lame duck president for about 11 weeks and aside from purloining money and issuing pardons to “his boys”, who knows what he is capable of doing.
The third story is best described under the umbrella of impeachment. It will encompass Russiagate, Ukrainegate and various other scandals. While impeachment in the House is almost a certainty, (possibly a reality by the time you read this), conviction and removal in the Senate is quite a different matter. Unless there is a drastic shift in Republican public opinion between this writing and the conclusion of a Senate trial I can’t see 20 Republican Senators voting to remove Trump from office.
I need a wide net for my fourth story. I will simply call it hot spot(s). Among the most likely are North Korea, Ireland/Northern Ireland, the Middle East, Africa, particularly northern Africa, along with the Baltic States. I can see conflict erupting and/or worsening in any or all of these areas with different degrees of significance to America. Combining Russian adventurism, Kim Jung-un’s threats with Trump’s incompetence, contempt for NATO, the possibility of Brexit and several other factors I don’t see how a lid is kept on all these spots.
Not because of relative significance, but because it is not as “sexy” of a news story I have the repercussions of climate change at number five. Despite a plethora of news reports having 2019 closing out the decade mathematically 2020 does. Trump is president of the leading economic power in the world for all of 2020. I predict 2020 will be the warmest year and this decade the warmest decade in recorded human history. The problem is getting worse and therefore it will become more noticeable.
The year is 2020 and I just hope the American people will begin to see clearly.
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